The writer is chief economist at Morgan Stanley
A comeback in inflation is no less likely because it has been absent for the past 30 years.
On the contrary, the conditions are ripe for US inflation to overshoot 2 per cent, the level that the US Federal Reserve gauges as consistent with its mandate. Under its new approach unveiled last year, the Fed has signalled it will tolerate an overshoot of the target for a period of time to compensate for persistently low inflation.
The risk, as I see it, is that inflation could overshoot the overshoot levels the Fed is comfortable with.
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