As tensions with the west have intensified, Beijing has shown its readiness to weaponise its control over rare earths. A wave of new Chinese export restrictions on the group of 17 metallic elements this year has unsettled manufacturers worldwide that depend on them to produce everything from smart devices and electric vehicles to military equipment. Alternatives remain limited: China accounts for 66 per cent of all mined supply and 88 per cent of global refined supply. Following the October 30 summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing delayed some of its planned controls. But the demonstration of dominance was made.
China’s near-global monopoly in rare earths will not be usurped soon. It has achieved its grip, overcoming the hold the US once exerted, since the 1980s through decades of strategic planning and sustained state support, which shows no sign of abating. Efforts to reverse things and replicate China’s supply chain elsewhere today would be costly, time-consuming and inefficient. Still, given Beijing’s power over essential industrial production, and its willingness to leverage it, nations have no option but to develop buffers and diversify their suppliers.
Beijing’s curbs have already prompted action at the national and regional level. This year, the Trump administration has signed deals with several countries to secure supplies and invested in domestic miner MP Materials, while also guaranteeing a price floor for some of the company’s production. The EU has set targets for domestic rare earth production, supported by faster approval processes. Beginning to shift the balance will take time, but co-ordinated international coalitions could lower some of the obstacles and speed up the process.