Donald Trump has proved he can swing elections outside the US — against himself. Without the US president’s tariffs and annexation threats against Canada, it is inconceivable that Mark Carney’s Liberals could have come from 25 points behind a few months ago and swept to a fourth successive election victory. The leader of previously front-running Conservatives, the Trump-inspired Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat. Canadians favoured a slick, internationalist central banker who is in many ways the anti-Trump as the leader best equipped to take on the man in the Oval Office. For Carney, though, winning may prove the easy part.
Mainstream parties elsewhere will cheer Canada’s liberal swing as a sign that their brand of politics can still prevail in the age of Trump. It suggests the return of Trump’s Maga populism will not necessarily prompt a wave of rightwing victories but could spur a backlash. Australia’s incumbent Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may also see off a rightwing challenge on Saturday. Centre-left leaders could face calls to stand up to Trump rather than play nice; nationalist populists will fret that being too closely associated with him could backfire. Indeed the president’s ham-fisted, election-eve post urging Canadians to embrace being the “cherished 51st state” suggests Trump has little interest in compromises to help out would-be Trumps abroad.
Yet centrist celebration should be restrained. Canada’s deep economic dependence on America and Trump’s direct menace to its sovereignty make it a special case. The Liberals’ almost 44 per cent vote was also a narrower victory over the Conservatives’ 41 per cent than the polls had projected; smaller parties were the big losers. A Conservative vote that was the highest for any right-of-centre party since 1988 shows how many Canadians still distrust the Liberals, and looked to the Conservatives and Poilievre to deal with Trump.