The writer is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Donald Trump’s gleeful “Drill, baby, drill” pledge chimes with the idea of weaponising America’s status as the world’s largest oil producer to strip Russia of the oil revenues funding its war in Ukraine. This line of argument usually has two main points: that the US could flood the market with its crude, driving prices lower and pushing out expensive Russian barrels, and that increased US production could make it possible to embargo and sanction Russian oil exports altogether without causing a shortage and sending prices sky-high.
There is already a wave of scepticism among both oil industry analysts and insiders over the viability of the 3-3-3 economic plan announced by the Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent. This includes increasing US oil production by 3mn barrels a day, or an energy equivalent, by 2028. The cost structure of shale oil — the main growth engine of US oil production over the past 15 years — is such that, according to the Dallas Fed, oil producers need on average a forecast of $64 a barrel price to drill a new well. Quite a few existing wells would be shut down if the price falls below $50 a barrel. The government might cut some red tape and make more federal land available for drilling, potentially offering opportunities for more prolific wells with a lower break-even price, but those changes would not have a drastic impact.