The writer is head of macro research at BNP Paribas Asset Management
It is getting towards the time when many start turning to resolutions for the new year. Here is a suggestion for the people who set interest rates: publish your estimates of where you expect rates to settle in the medium run.
Policymakers are often asked about the location of that so-called neutral rate, but they rarely give a precise answer. At present, the default response is that rates are currently above neutral, but it is very hard to know by how much. Many policymakers are reticent about providing point estimates of what they consider a highly uncertain, unobservable model-based concept. Nonetheless, the arguments for talking more about neutral rates are compelling.
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