I’ll admit to tuning out much of the debate over whether artificial intelligence is going to destroy us all. If our digital overlords do eventually turn me into a paper clip, then at least I will have enjoyed my final precious moments as a human. I’ll have spent them considering a different part of the debate, over how much AI will affect growth. The stakes are slightly lower, but there is just as much disagreement. Why?
The core discussion concerns AI’s scope, scale and speed. Will AI be a force that accelerates automation, or will it also speed up innovation? And will its effects be the avocado slicer of food prep, or the microwave? And then there is the risk that while technologists may like to move fast and break things, corporate executives prefer a more sedentary lifestyle.
There have been several attempts to estimate the effects of generative AI on annual productivity growth, with pretty varied results. Last year, Goldman Sachs estimated that in rich countries it could contribute around 1.5 percentage points over a decade.