The past week has produced two highs, and a deep low, for European democracy. The swearing-in of Donald Tusk as Polish premier after his electoral victory over the illiberal Law and Justice party was one high. Another was the EU’s agreement, fending off threats of a veto by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, to start membership talks with Ukraine. But, in a low point, Orbán still blocked a four-year, €50bn EU aid deal for Kyiv, jeopardising its ability to fund its war with Russia. To ensure cash flows to Ukraine in 2024, and that the EU can remain an effective geopolitical player, it must find ways to tackle its “Orbán problem”.
EU leaders should start by being clear that Orbán is motivated largely by money. He needs EU funds to keep flowing to Hungary, boosting its economy, to underpin his support. Billions of euros have been blocked since 2021 over rule of law concerns. Hungary’s premier was last week trying to use his posturing over Ukraine as leverage to unblock the frozen funds. He also knows eventual EU membership for Kyiv would shrink the funding pie for Hungary and other central European members.
Orbán has no desire to “leave the EU”, as he said in an interview. Instead, he wants to “take it over”, with like-minded allies. What was notable last week, however, was how far Hungary’s leader remains from that goal, especially after Poland’s change of direction, and despite advances by populist leaders and parties elsewhere. Indeed, on Ukraine he was entirely isolated. With 26 leaders against him, even Orbán seemed to feel too weak to wield his threatened double-veto, instead leaving the room while the rest voted to launch accession talks with Kyiv.